Paul Krugman’s essay The Billionaire’s War covers why the wealthy won’t feel the consequences of Trump’s war; instead they’ll fall on the mainstream American. His has particularly harsh judgment of the technology elite.
…the vast wealth of tech billionaires has made many of them unconcerned with the little people’s lives — and deeply unpatriotic. If Americans are being brutalized and murdered by rogue ICE agents…well, that’s not their problem. If the Justice Department and the FBI are totally subverted and operate as Trump’s enforcers, they know that vindictive, unlawful tactics will never touch their lives. If Republican budget cuts decimate rural hospitals and deprive hundreds of thousands of health insurance…well, they have their own private doctors and clinics. If Trump starts an ill-conceived war that doubles the price of oil…well, they can certainly afford the higher gasoline bills for their limousines and yachts. And it won’t be their kids hunkered down in a bunker in the Middle East.
Hold aside the intensity and breadth of Krugman’s statement, I mean, it’s Krugman – I focus more fundamentally about whether the technology upper class is becoming less likely to have to deal with the negative externalities they create, and whether this implicitly changes the way they approach their lives. In a K-shaped economy without a shared definition of what is ethical or moral, one can’t help but if at least year-over-year, decade-over-decade this is true of our community.
Something Substack’s Chris Best said about their partnership with Polymarket stuck in my head: “As Best put it to me [Alex Health]: “I’m a ship and find out guy.”” Combine that with what interviewer Alex Heath posited in the same article: “To this tech leader class, the potentially negative ramifications of how these markets actually work today are secondary to the long-term value they’ll bring.” I don’t want to single out Best specifically – lots of industries and companies — most way bigger than Substack — are rushing to create partnerships like this – I just wonder if they’re all making decisions guided by upside ($$$, engagement, being in the flow) and unrestrained by the downside. What if ‘find out’ is acceleration of Gen Z gambling trends, and lives ruined? How do we balance those risks with market economy needs? With the belief that so long as it’s legal, adults are able to make their own choices?
It’s certainly no purity test that I want to force on others uniformly – I’ll leave it to each person to decide for themselves – but historically Homebrew has not invested in gambling related startups. It’s not as interesting to us and we’re concerned about the impact of turbocharging these models with tech and venture dollars. Founders of these companies likely aren’t bad people and they deserve investors who are passionate supporters of their work. If we don’t think we be that for them, then we certainly shouldn’t ask to be on their cap tables. I don’t think prediction markets need to fundamentally be a mirror of casinos but it’s certainly true that much of their marketing (and a lot of their volume) today is sports-related.
I just encourage people to have their own redlines about what they will or won’t do for money. And to keep in mind that society is based on not just climbing the ladder, but also making sure the ladder is perched on stable ground.
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My Actual Savings This Year