In Feb 2010 i predicted that Foursquare would be the winner of geowars if they could get “beyond the check-in.” Sounds simple but this was at a time when folks like Scoble were wondering if 4Sq would survive to see 2011! [my original post also pasted below]
So 18 mths later, let’s see what’s changed
A. After an August of amazing product releases we can definitely say that 4SQ is an EXPERIENCE not just a way to publish your location to your FB feed. Explore, lists and specials are killer features that have reinvigorated my use of the product. Not to mention subtle workflow and UI enhancements such as in-line pics. The team is ROCKING it.
B. The Game Mechanic outside of mayorships has really taken a backseat. My guess is that the metagame rightfully continues to slumber so that they can focus on…. [see C]
C. Business Accounts. Check-ins and points will become more important as loyalty programs for specific businesses. I think they’ll let Businesses make their own badges to be awarded for different tiers of check-ins. This will restore the novelty to badges and create a mini-revival of badge collection & sharing.
D. Escape Velocity – Everyone knows that BD stud Tristan Walker & his team has made 4SQ a household name in the media/brand/business community. I’m going to be a little contrarian though and say despite the current success, they need to accelerate growth – ie they’re not across the chasm yet. But i think this will happen at the local level because of local SMBs and list sharing, not because of big media deals like the ones which they started doing last year.
Overall i couldn’t be more excited for Dens, Alex, Harry, Tristan, Sioban, Jon, Noah & the other peeps at 4SQ. Keep it up guys and i’m looking forward to the next 18 mths.
The Geo Wars: How Foursquare survives…..
My opinion: yes – and they’ll be big – if they can execute the following two tricks:
1) Make sure 4SQ is an experience, not just a utility
If checking-in is predominantly just a way to publish your current location to FB or Twitter, then 4SQ will ultimately lose to those services. But if 4SQ can build an experience on top of checking-in, they will create a differentiated use case. Examples of what this experience could be incl:
a) GAME: extending the mechanics of badges, mayorships, leaderboards, etc
b) RECOMMENDATIONS: using my personal geo data to not just track where i’ve been but provide me suggestions of where to go
c) COMMERCE: Discounts, sweepstakes, etc for checking-in at locations
2) Hit escape velocity fast!
We always overestimate the ability for bigger companies to staple on yet another use case to their product. Consumers often want simple tools that satisfy a need. Now at over 1m check-ins/week, 4SQ needs to throw everything they can at growing quickly and getting adoption in order to cross over to the mainstream – to become the snowball. This means eliminating frictions to sign-up even if it means collecting less info on users in the nearterm or relying more on FB Connect; accelerating a partnership or two for distribution even if it means paying to seed distribution; or being ruthless about delaying advanced user features in order to make sure the basics work across multiple platforms.
As an early 4SQ user I want the innovator to win – they can leverage my loyalty to help them out – put me to work – Dens, whatcha want me to do? Invite five friends this month? Update five listings? Mobilize us!
Once escape velocity is achieved you gain two advantages:
a) network effects of new users
b) competitors are playing catch-up, building the product you were as opposed to the product you’re becoming
If they get reduced to being a utility (“publish location”) or end up focused on too narrow a group of users, they’ll get passed by general purpose geo services or social networks on one side and out innovated by gowalla, mytown, etc on the other.
Alright, gotta run and check-in somewhere….